Several readers left thoughtful comments about my recent post, Flash for the iPhone? It’s Apple vs. Microsoft all over again…

Ird writes: Steve Jobs has no intentions of supporting Flash; especially on the iphone. Apple’s pushing the H.264 open standard and will stick to its guns because Apple want to use it this standard for AppleTV, iTouch & iPhone.

Ird, you’re right that Apple is pushing H.264 really hard. But I don’t think that’s why Apple is dissing Flash.

I think Apple sees its future in the content delivery system for mass market entertainment, so their chosen video format is a key part of that. But they don’t need to kill Flash to promote H.264. After all, they managed to get YouTube to re-encode all their video in H.264 for the iPhone (instead of their default Flash video).

And get this –Adobe recently added H.264 support to Flash. So if Apple cares mostly about H.264 video, then Flash shouldn’t be a big problem. If they want to, Apple could even support H.264 Flash video and break or disallow the older Flash video formats like Sorenson and On2 VP6.

Video is only part of the equation, though. Flash is an important web UI component for rich Web 2.0 applications (as well as everyday websites). One of the biggest appeals of the iPhone is that you can actually use the ‘real’ web, not a crippled mobile version of the web. So Apple’s going to continue to get pressure to support Flash, because iPhone users want their iPhone web browser to do everything that their Mac or PC web browser can do.

Robert R. Fox writes: “Apple wants a de-facto monopoly” … excuse me? On open standards that ANYONE can implement? AJAX. H.264. As opposed to say Flash? Which you imply is NOT a monopoly when it is wholly owned by ONE company? And if you can’t run Flash on the iPhone you can run it on WHICH other phone web browser? Am I missing something here?

Robert, I agree that Flash is a closed platform (and therefore an avenue to monopoly power). And I agree that AJAX and H.264 are open standards. But the iPhone hardware & OS is also a closed platform, right?

So here’s Apple’s game: their closed platform (the iPhone hardware & OS) needs applications. Apple wants lots of developers to write or customize apps for the iPhone, so they want the programming environment to be free. Apple wants to dictate the user experience on all iPhone applications, so they want control of the SDK (their own custom flavor of AJAX). And Apple wants the iPhone to remain 10x better than other mobile phones, so they want the application layer to be tightly tied to their OS (through the SDK).

Apple can’t ensure any of this if a competitor jumps in with a for-profit, proprietary, portable application layer — like, say, Flash. If Flash controls the application layer, then Apple loses some control over the iPhone user experience. If Adobe charges for the Flash IDE, then there will be fewer application developers. If Flash apps are portable, meaning you can use them on Windows Mobile or Symbian or whatever, then the iPhone loses differentiation and market share.

Robert, you asked: “And if you can’t run Flash on the iPhone you can run it on WHICH other phone web browser?” According to Adobe, you can run Flash Lite on “over 300 million mobile devices” including Windows Mobile and Symbian. Opera recently announced support for the full Flash player in their mobile browser. And you can bet that the new Google Android platform will support some version of Flash (as Dave Burke from Google alluded to recently).

So here’s the rub… if another mobile web platform uses Flash support to create a better web browsing experience, that will weaken iPhone’s current unquestioned status as “the best mobile web platform, period.” But incorporating Flash will weaken Apple’s control of the iPhone platform. That’s why Flash support is a dilemma for Apple.

For Apple to ensure their position as the unquestioned leader in mobile hardware & OS, they need to neuter Flash and/or establish strong competitors. We’ve seen this before — it’s the same competitive jousting that Microsoft went through to neuter Netscape and Java, in order to preserve their control over the desktop application stack. Personally, I think Apple will take a middle road: offer limited Flash support on the iPhone, but cripple the Flash player and/or make it difficult for developers to work in Flash for iPhone apps.

And finally…

The Dude writes: I don’t think people yet realize the groundswell of developers who are chomping at the bit for the iPhone/Touch SDK. People are VERY excited about this new platform.

I couldn’t agree more. The third screen has been an alluring dream for at least a decade, and many ambitious and creative projects have foundered trying to reach it. The iPhone has suddenly made this dream real. There are a TON of developers and companies who will jump on the opportunity. The longer Apple has the application development field to itself, the more likely they’ll own the market.

Techies tend to have a warped view of how “real people” relate to computers. A large chunk of the mass market doesn’t sit in front of computers all day, and doesn’t particularly like to spend their leisure time at a desk. If the iPhone/Touch succeed in untethering the web, including rich web applications, I think you’ll see a significant migration to the mobile web and away from the desktop web.

Exciting stuff, Dude.

Filed under: market size, strategy, video