Flash for the iPhone? It’s Apple vs. Microsoft all over again…
There’s a lot of speculation about whether Apple will soon offer Flash support on the iPhone. Insider rumors say yes (cf. Dan Rayburn at Streaming Media), published news reports say not-so-fast (cf. the Wall Street Journal, quoting an Adobe spokesman).
Why is this important? Because the iPhone is not just a smartphone. It’s Apple’s opportunity to dominate the mobile web.
The mobile web has been massively hyped for at least a decade. For most of that decade, it has also massively sucked.
The iPhone has changed all that — as the market share data proves. Within about six months, the iPhone has leapt from 0.00% market share to 0.12% market share of ALL web usage (and the growth rate is increasing). That’s TWICE the share of Windows Mobile, and more share than all competing mobile web browsers COMBINED. In the next year, it’s quite possible that the iPhone will capture ~90% market share among mobile web browsers, leaving 5% to Windows, et al. You can bet they’re grinning like hyenas about that down in Cupertino.
As Bob Cringley notes, full support of web applications is crucial to the iPhone’s usability. So far, Apple has ensured that AJAX is the only way to build web apps for the iPhone. While AJAX is an open standard that poses no threat to Apple, Flash is a proprietary standard that’s tightly controlled by Adobe. And there’s no love lost between Apple and Adobe (they’ve been frenemies for decades).
So, Flash support is NOT about how to play video — it’s about control of standards in a market where Apple wants a de-facto monopoly. By minimizing use of Flash on the iPhone, Apple is preventing Adobe from creating a cross-platform standard for mobile-web apps.
But Adobe is only a minor threat; Microsoft is a bigger concern. Microsoft is pushing into Flash’s territory with its new Silverlight platform and has an existing massive investment in mobile. It’s not likely that Apple will completely ignore Flash forever, if only because that would leave a big, gaping opportunity for Microsoft to improve upon the iPhone user experience by building up Flash and Silverlight support in Windows Mobile. Apple can’t afford to leave that door open.
By delaying this long Apple has already given iPhone developers a one year headstart with AJAX, and may have enough leverage to gain some control over an iPhone Flash player as well (or cripple it just enough to keep developers working on AJAX iPhone apps instead). Apple’s best-of-both-worlds scenario is that the mobile web tilts strongly towards AJAX, maintains modest Flash support, and shuts out Silverlight. We’ll see how well they can pull it off…
Filed under: market size, strategy, video
Steve Jobs has no intentions of supporting Flash; especially on the iphone. Apple’s pushing the H.264 open standard and will stick to its guns because Apple want to use it this standard for AppleTV, iTouch & iPhone.
Apple’s unified platform approach will serve it well going forward in a couple of areas:
1) product simplification and GUI consistency
2) lower production, sustainability & QC cost in the long run
3) central distribution system, namely, iTunes
But here’s another interesting point, as more players jump into the mix because they see an opportunity to make a buck, consumers will become bewildered by all the confusing choices and Apple will be the only one that will offer a simple & complete integrated upgrade path that preserves your investments.
Much like going from a mini, to a nano to AppleTV or iPhone now.
“Apple wants a de-facto monopoly” … excuse me?
On open standards that ANYONE can implement? AJAX. H.264.
As opposed to say Flash? Which you imply is NOT a monopoly when it is wholly owned by ONE company?
And if you can’t run Flash on the iPhone you can run it on WHICH other phone web browser?
Am I missing something here?
Thank you for this commentary. I don’t think people yet realize the groundswell of developers who are chomping at the bit for the iPhone/Touch SDK. People are VERY excited about this new platform.
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